Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.115219 0.128400 0.142057 0.157231 0.173586 0.190652 0.209773
2024-10-06 0.097154 0.116974 0.138662 0.164011 0.192678 0.223946 0.260482
2024-10-13 0.082578 0.106593 0.134169 0.167827 0.207437 0.252214 0.306286
2024-10-20 0.071164 0.097883 0.129921 0.170528 0.219960 0.277522 0.348921
2024-10-27 0.062112 0.090609 0.126154 0.172743 0.231149 0.300899 0.389380
2024-11-03 0.059278 0.090658 0.131039 0.185362 0.255001 0.339756 0.449064
2024-11-10 0.052333 0.084354 0.127000 0.185996 0.263439 0.359568 0.485683
2024-11-17 0.047320 0.080071 0.125075 0.188914 0.274479 0.382526 0.526369
2024-11-24 0.042311 0.075197 0.121819 0.189597 0.282284 0.401251 0.561839
2024-12-01 0.040952 0.075546 0.125752 0.200073 0.303209 0.437157 0.619765
2024-12-08 0.039641 0.075781 0.129411 0.210156 0.323739 0.472857 0.677988
2024-12-15 0.035980 0.071905 0.126693 0.210901 0.331298 0.491411 0.714025
2024-12-22 0.031523 0.066485 0.121580 0.208334 0.334743 0.505355 0.745466
2024-12-29 0.030315 0.066465 0.124775 0.218164 0.356031 0.544005 0.810746
2025-01-05 0.028208 0.064652 0.125005 0.223513 0.371055 0.574464 0.865714
2025-01-12 0.025954 0.062311 0.124179 0.227126 0.383574 0.601664 0.916730
2025-01-19 0.023786 0.059866 0.122966 0.229983 0.394948 0.627396 0.966106
2025-01-26 0.024048 0.062135 0.129755 0.245636 0.425642 0.680751 1.054190
2025-02-02 0.021799 0.059154 0.127345 0.246440 0.434032 0.702666 1.099148
2025-02-09 0.020202 0.057305 0.126740 0.250050 0.446651 0.730726 1.152975
2025-02-16 0.018355 0.054688 0.124557 0.250895 0.454955 0.752630 1.198411
2025-02-23 0.018297 0.055988 0.129533 0.263798 0.482148 0.802264 1.283519
2025-03-02 0.018162 0.057085 0.134151 0.276185 0.508731 0.851335 1.368367